The Friedman Report

Maryland Market Intelligence | Week of July 27–August 2, 2026

Kyle Friedman | The Friedman Team at eXp Realty

A hyperlocal, data driven weekly market report.

The Story of the Week

This week, Maryland's market did something it wasn't supposed to do. Statewide closings jumped to 782, up sharply from 615 the week before, a 27% surge, in the exact same week the 30 year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.66%, its fifth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level of this run. Rising rates are supposed to slow a market down. This week, they didn't.

The clearest proof is Carroll County, where average days on market dropped to just 17, down from 19 the week before, while closings rose to 47, up from 34. Fewer days on market and more closings almost never happen together unless buyers are moving with real urgency. That urgency is the story: contracts written weeks ago, before this rate climb started, are finishing on schedule, and buyers who are still active seem to be racing the next rate hike rather than waiting it out.

That's the read heading into August. This isn't a market ignoring rates, it's a market that hasn't caught up to them yet. The homes closing this week were priced and financed in a different rate environment. What happens to demand once that backlog clears, with rates five weeks into an uninterrupted climb, is the question next week's data needs to answer.

Maryland in 60 Seconds

55

FMMI Score

Balanced Market, Rebuilding Momentum Up from 50 last week

782

Homes Sold

Up from 615 last week (+27.2%)

1,225

New Listings

Statewide new active listings this week

369

Pending Contracts

Statewide

$440K

Median Sold Price

Up from $415,000 (+5.8%)

6.66%

30 Year Rate

5th straight weekly increase

30

Avg. Days on Market

Down from 31 days

1,141

Price Reductions

Up from 1,101 (+3.8%)

101.2% Sold Price ÷ List Price Down from 104.8% last week

What the Numbers Really Mean

Three things changed this week:

Closings snapped back hard, even as rates kept climbing

Statewide closed sales jumped 27.2% week over week to 782, the strongest single week total in recent reports, while the 30 year fixed rose to 6.66%, according to Freddie Mac, a fifth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level of the current run. Pipeline contracts written before the recent rate climb are finishing on schedule.

Pricing normalized, but didn't collapse

The statewide sold to list ratio eased from a hot 104.8% to a more typical 101.2%, and median sold price rebounded to $440,000. Sellers are still getting slightly more than asking, on average, but the frenzy level overbidding of two weeks ago has cooled to something closer to balanced.

Market Movers of the Week

Most Expensive New Listing

424 Bailiff Rd, North East, MD 21901

$3,900,000

2,239 sq ft farmhouse | 102.64 acres | Built 1900

A century old farmhouse on over 100 acres in Cecil County, listed simultaneously as Farm, Land, and Residential under three separate MLS numbers, zoned for a mix of small town, low density residential, and rural preservation use.

Least Expensive New Listing

2540 W Lombard St #C, Baltimore, MD 21223

$10,000

2 beds | 1 bath | 1,021 sq ft | Built 1900 | Opening bid

An online real estate auction rowhome in Shipley Hill, owner occupied for more than 30 years, bidding opens August 31 and closes September 2. A 6% buyer's premium applies on top of the winning bid.

Fastest Moving County

Carroll County

17 day average DOM | 47 closings

Slowest Moving County

Dorchester County

74 day average DOM | 10 closings

Market Spotlight: Carroll County & Harford County

Carroll County

Carroll County was the fastest moving market in the state for a second straight week, and it got faster. Average days on market dropped to just 17, down from 19 last week, while closings rose to 47, up from 34. Fewer days, more deals, that combination almost never happens by accident. It's a market where correctly priced homes are drawing offers within days.

Harford County

Harford County posted the second fastest pace in Maryland this week: 21 average days on market and 72 closings, the third highest closing volume of any county statewide. Harford is proving it can combine Baltimore County level pace with genuine transaction volume.

Active

55 listings

Closed

47 homes

Avg. DOM

17 days

Active

102 listings

Closed

72 homes

Avg. DOM

21 days

Friedman Heat Map: This Week's County Data

🔥 Hottest Markets Fastest Average DOM
❄️ Cooling Markets Slowest Average DOM

Baltimore County remains the volume king of the fast moving group, 157 closings dwarfs every other county in the state. On the cooling side, Dorchester and Caroline are the clear outliers this week, both averaging well over two months on market, a reminder that Maryland's slow lane and fast lane are now more than 50 days apart.

Week Over Week: How Maryland Compares

The headline: closings, median sold price, and market speed all improved this week, while price reductions ticked up modestly and the sold to list ratio normalized from an unusually hot reading. Pending contracts held roughly flat, a signal that this week's closing surge drew from an existing backlog rather than a fresh wave of new contracts. Rates kept climbing regardless, now five weeks into an uninterrupted run higher.

The Friedman Market Momentum Index (FMMI)

55

BALANCED MARKET, REBUILDING MOMENTUM

Up from 50 last week

What this means: Maryland shifted this week from "balanced, cooling" back to "balanced, rebuilding." Demand came back hard, pace improved, and prices firmed up, but rates are now the one component still working against the market.

70%

Demand Score

Up from 45. Closings jumped 27.2% week over week, the sharpest single week demand rebound in recent reports, even as pending contracts held nearly flat.

58%

Seller Strength Score

Up from 52. Median sold price rose 5.8% to $440,000, though the sold to list ratio cooled from 104.8% to 101.2%, keeping this score from climbing further.

63%

Market Speed Score

Up from 60. Average days on market ticked down from 31 to 30, a modest but real improvement in pace.

28%

Rate Environment Score

Down from 35. The 30 year fixed hit 6.66%, a fifth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level of the current climb.

The Friedman Signal™

🌡️ WARMING

Two straight weeks of cooling gave way to a real rebound: closings, median price, and pace all moved the right direction for sellers this week. This isn't a return to the frenzy of early summer, it's a market absorbing higher rates without stalling out. Watch pending contracts closely next week, they held nearly flat this week even as closings surged, and a sixth straight rate increase would test whether this week's demand was a genuine rebound or a one week blip.

Winners & Losers

🏆 Winners This Week

Carroll County

17 day average DOM and 47 closings, both improved from last week

Harford County

21 day average DOM with 72 closings, the third highest volume in the state

Statewide Demand

Closings up 27.2%, the strongest weekly rebound in recent reports

📉 Losing Momentum

Rate Sensitive Buyers

Fifth straight weekly increase, now at 6.66%

Baltimore City Pace

Average DOM slipped from 41 days last week to 50 days this week

Dorchester & Caroline Counties

Both averaging 70+ days on market

One Thing I'd Do This Week

🏠 If I Were Buying

Move on the reduced price pool now. 1,141 active listings already carry a price cut, and with closings surging, well priced inventory in fast counties like Carroll and Harford won't sit long. Every week rates climb is another week your purchasing power shrinks.

🏷️ If I Were Selling

Price at the $440,000 statewide median, not last month's ratio. The sold to list ratio normalized to 101.2%, still above asking on average, but the 104.8% overbidding of two weeks ago was the exception, not the new normal. Precision pricing is what's producing 17 day sales in Carroll County.

📈 If I Were Investing

Look at what SDAT just told Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford County homeowners. The state's 2026 Group 2 property reassessment, covering exactly these three jurisdictions, showed assessed values up 12 to 13% on average, phased in over three years. That's real equity building quietly in the same counties posting this week's fastest closings and highest volume, well before most owners have felt it in a monthly payment. For buyers, it's also a reminder to underwrite future tax bills, not just today's, in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford County deals.

Deep Dive: The Surprising Fact This Week

Maryland's own tax assessors just confirmed what this week's closing data is showing on the ground. Every one of Maryland's 23 counties and Baltimore City saw assessed values rise in the state's 2026 "Group 2" reassessment, covering Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford County among other jurisdictions, a group that includes nearly 789,000 residential and commercial accounts.

The statewide average increase was 12.7%, with residential properties up 13.2%. That's a slower pace than the 20.1% jump the prior group saw and the 23.4% jump the group before that saw, but it's still a meaningful move, and it's arriving in the exact three counties that combined for 352 closings and some of the fastest days on market numbers anywhere in this week's report.

Under Maryland law, owner occupied homes are capped at 10% assessment growth per year with the increase phased in evenly over three years, so most homeowners won't see the full hit at once. But for investment and rental property owners in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and Harford, which don't qualify for the Homestead Tax Credit, the increase lands closer to full strength.

Your Next Move Starts Here

Whether you're thinking about selling or searching for your next home, the right information makes all the difference.

Check Your Home's Value

Receive a personalized home value estimate based on recent comparable sales, current market trends, and local buyer demand, not just an automated online estimate.

  • Instant Home Value Estimate
  • Personalized Market Analysis
  • No Obligation

Search Homes for Sale

Browse the latest listings with real time MLS updates, save your favorite properties, and receive instant alerts when new homes hit the market.

  • Real Time MLS Listings
  • Save Favorite Homes
  • Instant New Listing Alerts

Let's Talk

Ready to get started? Kyle is ready to go to work for you.

Kyle Friedman

Licensed Realtor® | Expert Negotiator
Owner, Founder / The Friedman Team at EXP Realty

📞 443-789-3101  |  O: 888-860-7369
✉️ [email protected]

8115 Maple Lawn Blvd. #350, Fulton, MD 20759

Why Choose Kyle?

🏆 80% more views than comparable listings

📞 5,000+ calls/month to find your buyer

🎬 Cinematic video and best in class photography

⭐ Zillow Showcase premium placement

📊 Investor mindset on every deal since 2018

Equal Housing Opportunity. Kyle Friedman is a licensed real estate salesperson in Maryland affiliated with EXP Realty. All information is dee